What will Kevin Warsh do if America’s economy breaks?

Aug 2nd 2026|5 min read

For punters of a certain sort, Polymarket’s gambling platform offers an intriguing contract. “Nothing ever happens: 2026” is a bet named after a favoured mantra of bullish, very online traders. If none of roughly a dozen events, veering from the unlikely to the outlandish, takes place during the year, the contract pays out a return of around 30%. That would require each of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping not to resign, bitcoin’s price to remain between $10,000 and $1m, the planet not to suffer a major earthquake, volcanic eruption or meteor strike, and so on. If one or more of these things does happen, the punter loses everything.