The third Gulf war will scar energy markets for a long time yet

Photograph: Getty Images

Apr 8th 2026|7 min read

WHEN PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP announced a two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”, energy traders breathed a sigh of relief. For almost six weeks 15% of the world’s oil production and a fifth of its output of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been trapped by Iran’s blockade. Following Mr Trump’s announcement, the Brent crude price fell by 12%, from $103 a barrel to $91. The global benchmark has not been this volatile since near the start of the covid-19 pandemic, in 2020. Europe’s benchmark gas price had at one point dropped by 17%.