This satellite image provided by Vantor shows an overview of damage after a drone attack to Ras Tanura oil refinery, in Saudi Arabia.

Mar 3rd 2026|8 min read

ENERGY ANALYSTS modelling a war involving Iran have long feared two developments: the Islamic Republic lashing out at its oil-rich neighbours and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of global seaborne crude and a fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit daily. Until February 28th both eventualities seemed remote. Iran had too much to lose: it would push Gulf states even closer to America, its sworn enemy; anger China, the main buyer of its oil; and invite strikes on its own petroleum infrastructure.

Signage for Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MHFG), at one of the bank's branches in Tokyo, Japan.

The nightmare war scenario is becoming reality in energy markets