Illustration of white collars following a robot., smiling. Dollar bills are falling from the sky.

Illustration: Simon Bailly

Apr 20th 2026|New York|4 min read

IN MARKETS, NARRATIVES can matter as much as hard data. Investors make decisions based on the stories they tell one another. Over the past seven weeks the tales being swapped have been of war in Iran, its effect on global energy markets and presidential social-media activity. The S&P 500, America’s benchmark index of stocks, has moved up and down with Donald Trump’s estimates of the odds of an end to the conflict. It surged to an all-time high on April 17th as America and Iran agreed to let traffic resume in the Strait of Hormuz (see chart 1). It dipped on April 20th after the deal collapsed.

Signage for Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MHFG), at one of the bank's branches in Tokyo, Japan.

American corporate profits keep shrugging off global tumult