US war against Iran has entered a new phase

WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has lurched back into a war against Iran that had never really ended.

When the war started more than four months ago, US forces targeted Iranian military bases, missile launchers, ships and naval facilities. Israel, fighting alongside the United States, hit leadership targets, hoping to bring down Iran’s hardline government.

Their record of success has been mixed, at best. Israel killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the leaders who succeeded him were even more hardline.

US forces struck thousands of targets, but did not destroy Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil typically flows.

For roughly 90 days beginning in April, an on-again-off-again ceasefire prevailed. And then it was over.

The US now appears to be entering Round 2 of its military campaign. This round has a new focus – but not necessarily a clearer strategy.

Iran’s ability to control the strait, despite the pummeling its navy took, is by far the most important lesson of the first phase of the war. So it is no surprise that the Trump administration is focused on trying to loosen Iran’s grip on it.

Last week, in retaliation for attacks on tankers, President Donald Trump ordered air strikes on dozens of targets in Iran, including coastal radars, anti-ship missile launchers and a fleet of small Iranian attack boats.

After a short lull, the US hit 140 military targets in the first of three consecutive days of heavy bombing this week.

US forces carried out new rounds of attacks on Iran throughout July 14 and resumed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a strategy that showed some success in the earlier phase.

The strikes are intended to open the waterway to shipping. The purpose of the naval blockade is to put economic pressure on Iran by choking off its trade and to flex US military might.

Trump was quick to declare success.

“The Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran – and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on July 14.

But exactly what the US military will do to enforce the blockade, and how far it will go to exert control of the strait, is not clear.

Round One of the war came at a high cost.

Iran has estimated that at least 3,500 Iranians have died in the war, including 175 at an elementary school. Thirteen US service members have been killed. And the war has cost tens of billions of dollars already, and the new round could drive those financial costs up substantially.

A critical question for the next phase is whether Trump will consider an operation to take Kharg Island, a key export hub for Iran’s oil in the northern Persian Gulf.

Trump publicly mused about ordering the Marines to take control of the island during the first phase of the war, but ultimately abandoned those plans for fear of high US casualties.

Such an operation would be a far bigger escalation than Trump has undertaken so far. But it would be difficult, and lives could be lost in either taking or holding the island.

The US continues to have a fearsome arsenal in the region, including two aircraft carriers, and dozens of carrier- and land-based attack and surveillance planes.

“There are currently more than 20 US Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East,” Central Command said in a statement announcing the resumption of the blockade. “American forces remain vigilant, lethal and ready.”

In the strikes last week, US forces hit more than 170 Iranian military targets. In three consecutive days of heavy bombing this week, the US has hit 140 military targets.

US President Donald Trump publicly mused about ordering the Marines to take control of Kharg Island during the first phase of the war. PHOTO: PLANET LABS VIA NYTIMES

Analysts said the Trump administration was sending a pointed message to the government in Tehran that the US was willing to broaden its mission again and hit sites that have both military and civilian uses.

But senior US officials said the real focus of the current phase is undoubtedly the strait.

Who will blink first?

So far, Trump had not ordered resumption of an all-out conflict, in part because that could prompt Iran to target not only US military bases in Gulf countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but also energy infrastructure in those nations.

Attacks on those facilities could send oil and natural gas prices skyrocketing even higher.

Senior officials said the goal of the new military campaign is to force Iran to allow tankers and other commercial cargo ships to pass freely through the strait, and ultimately to return to the bargaining table to resume nascent talks on more difficult, long-term issues like the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium.

Administration officials acknowledge that the military strategy is not without risks.

Iran has shown it has an asymmetric advantage. Iranian forces do not have to hit every ship passing through the strait, or sink any of them. They only have to cause enough damage and issue enough threats to scare shipping companies and insurers.

This week, Iranian missiles struck two crude oil carriers that were transiting the southern part of the strait. The attack killed an Indian crew member. Another tanker, carrying liquefied natural gas, was also hit and caught fire near the Omani coast.

Senior US officials said time remains on the American side as Iran’s economy collapses.

During the uneasy peace, Iran was able to get many of its tankers out, and to empty storage tanks that were overflowing with oil.

The resumed blockade will cause that oil to back up once more, and the money Iran has made from its oil exports will begin to dry up.

But the real question is: Can Iran’s hardline leadership outlast Trump’s anxiety over rising oil prices? NYTIMES

• This article originally appeared in The New York Times.