US tariffs shake up Brazil's presidential race as candidates trade blame

BRASÍLIA, July 16 - The tariffs the Trump administration imposed on Brazilian goods on Wednesday thrust Washington into Brazil's October presidential election, reviving concerns about U.S. interference in Latin American politics.

The two candidates leading the polls in Latin America's largest economy, leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, traded blame on Thursday after Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued the levies were a consequence of Lula's handling of trade negotiations. The talks spanned months and included dozens of meetings.

"President Lula and his government have not negotiated with the US in good faith," Rubio said on X.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer justified the new 25% tariffs on thousands of Brazilian products by citing what he called unfair trade practices. The dispute has evolved into a political flashpoint, with Lula and Senator Bolsonaro — the son of Trump ally and former President Jair Bolsonaro — making separate trips to the Oval Office to press their case against tariffs with the U.S. president.

"The blame for the tariff hike is on Lula," said Senator Bolsonaro.

But political analysts say it may be hard for the younger Bolsonaro to change Brazilians' perception about the tariffs. Trump himself linked levies he imposed on Brazilian products last year to what he called a "witch hunt" against the senator's father, who is under house arrest after being convicted of trying to overthrow democracy.

The senator's brother, former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, claimed credit last year for pushing the White House to raise tariffs on U.S. imports of Brazilian goods in retaliation for a criminal case against his father.

The tariff outcome "is part of the plot built with the active collaboration of the Bolsonaro family," Lula said on Thursday. "They are false patriots who orchestrated and publicly defended actions against our country, driven by electoral objectives." The family has denied such allegations.

LARGER PUSH

Trump is weighing in on political contests across Latin America. His recent "complete and total endorsement" of Colombia's President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella followed support for leaders including Javier Milei in Argentina and José Antonio Kast in Chile.

Still, polls suggest the tariffs may benefit Lula, not the younger Bolsonaro.

A survey published on Thursday, conducted this week by pollster Quaest, showed that 42% of respondents said the levies swayed them to vote for Lula, compared to 27% for Senator Bolsonaro. A majority — 63% — said they thought the tariffs would hurt them or their family.

Foreign policy is one of several issues that could sway voters in a close election, said Lucas de Aragão, a partner at Brasilia-based consultancy Arko Advice.

"The swing voters on these polarizing issues are very important, and on this point, specifically on the tariffs, it seems to be a victory of Lula's narrative over Flavio's narrative," Aragão said. REUTERS