Uncertainty over Qatar diplomacy clouds prospects for US-Iran deal

DOHA – Iranian and US negotiators were gearing up for meetings on June 30 in Qatar, but uncertainty over the timing and content of any diplomatic talk raised questions over efforts to bring a lasting halt to the Iran war and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The diplomacy follows exchanges of fire over the weekend that tested the June 17 interim accord between the United States and Iran.

The 14-point pact gave the two sides 60 days to negotiate a permanent truce in the conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb 28 and to resolve thorny issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

The conflict disrupted global trade in oil and other goods, exposed Gulf states to Iranian drone and missile fire, and killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

The White House said US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, were expected to land in Doha on June 30 for “high-level meetings”, with technical meetings to continue on the sidelines.

But while Iran is sending a technical delegation to Qatar this week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said this had “no relation” to the Americans’ visit, with no talks scheduled between the two sides.

“We will not have any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days,” Baghaei said.

A senior Iranian official said a meeting in Doha would be limited to discussions on managing the Strait of Hormuz and reducing tension.

Still, oil prices slipped further on June 30 on the de-escalation since the weekend, and were set for their biggest quarterly loss since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

After the war began four months ago, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried about a fifth of the global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas, came to a virtual standstill.

Iran has since sought to exert control over the waterway alongside Oman, saying it plans to charge fees to ships to use it and obstructing vessels that stray outside defined paths.

Since June 25, the US has accused Iran of hitting at least two commercial ships with missiles or drones, and bombed Iranian military facilities in response.

Iran, in turn, launched missiles and drones at US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, with both sides accusing each other of breaking the ceasefire.

A man frolics at a beach in Bandar, Abbas, Iran, as vessels are moored at the Strait of Hormuz. PHOTO: REUTERS

The war pushed up global inflation and has put Trump under political pressure domestically before midterm elections in November that will determine control of the US Congress.

On June 30, the White House said Trump has authorised a temporary suspension of some duties on imports of phosphate fertiliser from Morocco, as US farmers grapple with shortages and shipments of fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to return to pre-conflict levels only gradually.

“The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “We’re going to find out.”

In Iran, where the theocratic leadership survived the war but faces domestic anger over a battered economy, two members of the Revolutionary Guards were killed in what the elite force described as a “terrorist” shooting in a western province.

The interim deal between the US and Iran also provides for an end to the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But Lebanon’s powerful Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah, cast doubt on a separate, US-brokered framework deal between Lebanon and Israel to halt that war.

Analysts said the deal risks entrenching a stalemate by tying Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah’s disarmament. REUTERS