Typhoon season forecast to be among most intense for Asia

LONDON – The current typhoon season in the North-west Pacific Ocean is shaping up to be one of the most intense on record as the El Nino system strengthens, according to the latest projection by commercial forecaster Tropical Storm Risk.

Typhoon development is expected to be 60 per cent above the historical average in an “exceptionally active season”, the London-based group said in an outlook published on Aug 10.

Storms that form over the North-west Pacific can hit countries including China, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Twenty typhoons are forecast to form in the region, of which 13 will be intense, Tropical Storm Risk said.

This is higher than the corresponding 10-year averages of 14.2 and 8.4, according to the forecaster, in an upward revision of outlooks published in May and July.

The North-west Pacific is already seeing heightened storm activity, recording three Category 5 typhoons this season as at Aug 1, according to the forecaster.

Though Typhoon Dolphin quickly dissipated after crossing the Chinese coast over the weekend, two named tropical storms are swirling, with one set to strike Japan later on Aug 11.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center is also tracking another tropical depression.

“A strong El Nino event has developed and is forecast to intensify further through the rest of summer and autumn,” Adam Lea, manager at Tropical Storm Risk, wrote in the report, adding that this would have “a strong enhancing effect” on the typhoon season.

In addition, the weakest trade winds in over six decades indicate that the atmosphere is strongly in sync with chart-topping Pacific Ocean temperatures, Lea said.

This strong ocean-sky coupling helps create conditions that raise the likelihood of an extremely active typhoon season.

Asia’s typhoon season typically runs from June to October, though the destructive storms can also form in other months.

Typhoons, known as hurricanes in other basins, are the most powerful systems within a family known as tropical cyclones.

In contrast to the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic basin is set for a quieter-than-usual hurricane season, as El Nino conditions lead to near-record wind shear and dry air in that region. BLOOMBERG