Spain’s Ceuta migration influx: What we know

MADRID - The massive and sudden influx of 60,000 migrants into Spain’s enclave of Ceuta, located in the north of Morocco, has triggered a crisis for Spain, and the European Union.

How big is the influx?

The number of migrants suddenly flowing into Ceuta is outsized for the territory’s population of 80,000.

Some 60,000 migrants have so far entered over the past two or three days, estimated the local regional president Juan Jesus Vivas.

Around 200 migrants were arriving “every minute”, according to Ignacio Cembrero, a journalist specialised in migration in North Africa.

Spain’s interior ministry counted 25,000 who have since left Cueta to return to Morocco, Spain’s interior minister said later on July 31.

The scale is far bigger than that in May 2021 when, over a few days, some 12,000 migrants flowed into Ceuta, according to the Ceuta and Melilla Observatory.

Is Morocco facilitating?

According to Cembrero, since July 29, it appeared that Moroccan security forces “have been sitting on their hands”.

“To reach the breakwater that marks the border between Ceuta and Morocco, there are cordons of police and auxiliary forces, and it’s obvious they’ve been allowed through. Otherwise, this would not have happened,” he said.

Carlos Echeverria, the head of the Ceuta and Melilla Observatory, said that there was an argument to use the controversial term “invasion” because “thousands of people cross an international border illegally, exerting pressure on a neighbour”.

Why now?

According to experts consulted by AFP, there are several possible explanations.

One would be the ruling by Spain’s Supreme Court on July 8, which determined that the immediately return of a migrant without opening an administrative expulsion procedure does not apply in the case of sea arrivals.

“Without a doubt, the July 8 ruling... has played a role. But that doesn’t explain the level of mobilisation, which is very high,” Cembrero said.

The mass arrival could have been encouraged by Spanish government’s recent move to regularise people who arrived in the country illegally.

Or that Spain’s government could change, to be replaced by one with a firmer line on immigration.

But both of these hypotheses are difficult to confirm, analysts say.

Leverage for Morocco?

“The most important thing, the backdrop, is that permanent blackmail” by Morocco, Echeverria said.

Analysts say that the recurring migration crises and the alleged laxity of Moroccan security forces are tools of diplomatic pressure.

Morocco has claimed sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla since its independence in 1956, while Spain has flatly rejected any negotiation over the two enclaves.

According to Cembrero, “the Moroccan authorities have seen an opportunity to force Spain to negotiate the future of these cities”.

Faced with this “unacceptable” territorial claim, Echeverria said the issue should be “Europeanised”.

“We must obtain retaliatory measures from the European Union, as a member state,” he says. AFP