Nigerians' cost of living pain deepens as election looms

LONDON/ABUJA, Aug 10 - Grace Adama puts her earrings on in her two-room flat before grabbing her handbag and leaving for work in Abuja, Nigeria's capital.

The health NGO worker's 135,000 naira ($99) monthly salary is nearly double the country's minimum wage, but she said life keeps getting tougher as her salary fails to keep pace with rocketing costs.

"If I'm paid today, my salary stays with me just for one week," she told Reuters. "If you see the cost of living, house, electricity, everything has gone up."

Living standards for millions in Africa's largest oil exporter have crumbled in the past three years as the government of President Bola Tinubu pushed through painful reforms, including fuel subsidy removals, naira devaluation and electricity subsidy cuts.

The government and investors say the reforms were essential to pull the country back from the edge of fiscal crisis and would pay off in the long run.

But now, it costs Nigerians more than double to make the staple jollof rice than it did when Tinubu took office, according to an index by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence which tracks the prices of ingredients which go into making the dish. Petrol prices are six times higher following the scrapping of the subsidy and as the naira weakened and global oil prices surged.

NIGERIANS BRISTLE, INVESTORS CHEER REFORMS

The World Bank estimates just over half of Nigeria's population were in poverty last year, up from roughly 42% in 2022.

Citizens' struggles under Tinubu, nicknamed "T-Pain" by some bristling under the rising costs, contrast sharply with investor optimism.

"This is the most positive investors have been about Nigeria probably in the last two decades," said Thys Louw, portfolio manager at investment firm Ninety One. "They're taking the tough medicine now."

The chasm between those like Adama, squeezed by costs, and booming financial markets, adds a new angle to a country already defined by contrasts: glittering, cosmopolitan Lagos and militant-threatened Maiduguri in the northeast; marble-laden mega mansions and tin-roofed shacks housing entire families.

Tinubu must convince voters that the benefits of the reforms will trickle down to them, too, before January's elections.

"I can't even send money to my aged mother at home...(in Benue state, several hours away). I can't do a lot of things that I used to do before," Adama said, adding that she had cut meat from her diet and moved to a smaller apartment but still relied on short-term loans to pay bills.

BOOMING STOCK MARKET, LIMITED LOANS

Tinubu's term followed eight years of unorthodox economic policies under President Muhammadu Buhari, including import bans to boost local industry, tight currency controls and petrol subsidies. This created shortages of needed imports, made it tough to get money out of the country or access foreign exchange and fuel subsidies drained $10 billion from government coffers in 2022 alone.

"We were living in fiscal illusions," Nigeria's Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele told a recent event in Abuja. "We needed to stop deceiving ourselves so the country can move forward."

Tinubu's government says reforms are bearing fruit, pointing to the Nigerian stock exchange, up close to 60% this year, the transfer of oil assets to local companies and the 2024 opening of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote oil refinery just outside Lagos.

Capital inflows into Nigeria hit a six-year high of $23 billion last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, reflecting investor confidence.

But fewer than 5% of Nigerian adults invest in capital markets, the Nigerian bourse has said, and the inflows are concentrated in "hot money" — short-term Treasury bills and other financial assets that investors can quickly sell if trouble appears.

Businesses and individuals struggle to get affordable loans, with the key central bank interest rate at 26.5% as the bank battles near-16% inflation.

Petrol prices nationally average roughly 1,600 naira ($1.18) per litre, lower than in neighbouring Ghana and Ivory Coast, but too high for many used to years of cheap fuel as their main government benefit.

"The solution for me is for government to bring the fuel price down," Lagos food seller Eji Uchenna said. His customers can no longer afford to buy in bulk.

SITTING ON GUNPOWDER

In June, federal workers rejected a proposed 100,000 naira minimum wage, threatening an indefinite nationwide strike. A June voter sentiment tracker by SBM Intelligence also showed 80% of Nigerians view the country as moving in the wrong direction.

Security tops concerns, with kidnapping rife.

Still, SBM's Chief Executive Cheta Nwanze said the anger would not necessarily unseat Tinubu given a fragmented opposition.

"The opposition is disunited, and... the only way the opposition beats Tinubu is if they are united," Nwanze said.

Louw said if government sticks with its policies, workers should start to benefit as inflation falls, allowing lower interest rates.

Oyedele acknowledged the government must do more to ensure "prosperity for all Nigerians".

"When inequality persists, it becomes dangerous. It's like sitting on gunpowder; it explodes." REUTERS