Lula unifies Brazil's left, but questions remain about its future without him

BRASILIA, July 31 - When Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva takes the stage at the country's Workers Party convention on Sunday to accept his seventh, and likely final, nomination as a presidential candidate, at the age of 80, he will do so with the Brazilian left more united behind him than at any other point in his decades-long political career.

For the first time in nearly 40 years, Lula is the presidential candidate for all five major center-left parties. But that unity, forged in opposition to a rising far right, is also raising questions about who might lead the movement once the former union leader is no longer on the ballot.

"It won't be easy," said Juliano Medeiros, the former president of the Socialism and Liberty Party, one of the parties in Lula's coalition. "We'll have to debate extensively to see if we can maintain a convergence on the left."

The growth of a coalition around Lula stems from a survival strategy, as Brazilians grow increasingly conservative.

According to researcher Felipe Nunes, the author of the book "Brazil in the Mirror," from 2014 to 2023, the share of Brazilians who consider themselves right-wing rose to 37% from 26%, while those who identify as left-wing fell to 23% from 29%.

The shift has supported the rise of far-right figures such as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who last year was convicted for attempting to overthrow democracy.

Now, his son Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is running against Lula.

"The far right remains alive, and the popular democratic camp – which we represent – must unite," said Carlos Lupi, the head of the Democratic Labour Party, which had its own presidential candidate in the last election, in 2022. "We are at a very unique moment. The democrats will be on one side and the offspring of the dictatorship on the other."

Brazil was ruled by a military dictatorship between 1964 and 1985, a period that far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters portray as an ideal era in Brazilian history, despite the political violence from the regime.

The shift is regional. Lula is one of the few leftist leaders leading a South American country, after the election of right-wing leaders in countries such as Chile, Colombia, and Argentina in recent years, following the economic stagnation that hit the region in the past decade.

NO CLEAR HEIR

Many on the left agree that beating the rightward trend without Lula seems unfeasible now.

Political scientist Creomar de Souza of the consulting firm Dharma Political Risk and Strategy said the left's reduced political space is further enhanced by its difficulty in finding an effective narrative on social media, leaving parties with few good options to win.

"By joining Lula's election campaign, they have the advantage of trying to anchor themselves in the political figure that Lula represents and in the electoral impact that figure currently has," he said.

Lula currently leads opinion polls for both rounds of the election, with a small but consistent margin over Senator Bolsonaro, as the economy remains stable and inflation slows, but Lula is also supported by voters who reject Bolsonaro.

Eden Valadares, the communications secretary of the Workers Party, known as the PT, said he did not see a decline of the left but rather a polarization, with the traditional right losing ground to the far right, and a maturing of the left in the face of that threat.

"The support of all these parties for Lula is not automatic," he said, adding the PT had to make concessions to secure support for Lula. "There is a mediation process in which everyone feels included."

Normally reluctant to cede the leading role in state-level coalitions, this time — on Lula’s instructions — his party decided to change its stance and make room for allies to lead the ticket in some cases.

Still, Lula, a constant figure on Brazilian campaign trails since 1989, will be 84 at the end of a new term, if elected, and has no clear successor.

Behind the scenes, politicians acknowledge that a power struggle is likely to begin during a potential fourth term for Lula.

Former ministers Fernando Haddad and Camilo Santana are emerging as possible successors, but neither has the standing on the Brazilian left, or internationally, that Lula currently commands.

Whoever wants to command the left in 2030, when the next presidential race is scheduled to take place, will have the daunting task of convincing the left to remain united.

"Today we are fortunate to have a figure like Lula, someone who has the ability to speak beyond the left-wing bubble," said Medeiros, the former party leader. "Between now and 2030, we'll have to debate a vision for the country, a shared strategy." REUTERS