Iran conflict escalates as US announces third troop death

The US and Iran engaged in a quickening series of tit-for-tat attacks, causing fresh chaos in the Middle East as the US military announced the death of a third US troop in the past two days.

A US service member in northern Iraq was killed on July 18 while trying to conduct a controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian one-way attack drone, US Central Command said in a social media post. A second service member was wounded in that attempt.

On July 17, two US troops were killed in Jordan in an attack the US ascribed to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. That attack also wounded four others and left one missing.

The death on July 18 brings the total US toll to 17 since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on Feb 28. Central Command also said it found unidentified remains in Jordan and it was investigating to determine if it was the missing service member.

A week of back-and-forth strikes has expanded beyond strictly military targets to include bridges, utilities and port facilities, suggesting little prospect of a return to the fragile ceasefire signed in June.

Adding to the pessimism, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview posted on his Telegram channel on July 19 that certain demands related to the country’s nuclear efforts may remain “unresolvable”.

Central Command described the recent American strikes as seeking to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and “swiftly punish” IRGC forces.

In the most recent round of strikes, US forces hit Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf, as well as southern cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad, Iranian media reported. There were no immediate details on casualties or damage.

Kuwait again bore the brunt of Iran’s retaliation, after a power and water desalination plant was targeted, making it the third attack in as many days, causing a fire and impacting a large number of generation units, local authorities said. Drones targeted US forces at Camp Buehring and the Ali Al Salem Air Base, Iran’s state-run IRIB News said, although there was no confirmation that either site was hit.

Kuwait’s army said in a social media post the attacks on the power and desalination plants caused fires and “severe damage” to “vital institutions.”

Bahrain sounded warning sirens on July 19, before saying it had intercepted a wave of Iranian aerial attacks.

Israel said on July 19 it intercepted an Iranian done near the Israel-Syria border, with Defence Minister Israel Katz warning Tehran that it will re-engage if attacked.

The US was sending more warplanes to the Middle East, the New York Times reported, citing anonymous US officials. The planes included F-16 fighter jets and F-35 jets, as well as additional aerial refueling aircraft. The movements were signs of a possible US escalation in strikes.

Brent crude rose near US$88 per barrel on July 17 – its biggest weekly advance since April.

“The oil market is again tightening, which is likely to keep oil prices supported,” Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG, said by phone. “Repeated strikes on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz have resulted in a drop in tankers exiting the Gulf” and “energy infrastructure attacks are something which is likely to keep oil market participants concerned”.

In separate statements on July 19, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar expressed concern over the escalation, and Jordan summoned an Iranian diplomat. Targeting civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, desalination plants, energy facilities and transportation hubs “cannot, under any circumstances, be accepted or justified,” the UAE said.

Tensions also spiked in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway vital to global energy supplies that has been at the heart of negotiations and where Tehran is asserting control. The IRCG Navy said on July 19 it had halted four unidentified vessels attempting to use an “unsafe route” after disregarding warnings.

Two “met with accidents and were stopped in their tracks, while the others “abandoned the route and turned back,” the navy said. It vowed “not a single drop of oil, gas, or chemical fertilizer will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission”.

Deal abandoned

Tehran announced on July 18 it would no longer adhere to the terms of the interim peace deal after unleashing heavy attacks on Washington’s allies in the Middle East in retaliation for the US strikes.

Beyond bombing Iran more often, the US is again blockading the country’s ports and has scrapped a waiver for sanctions on its oil exports.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of “unforgettable lessons” for the US. In a statement on July 18, he said US violations of the memorandum – a 60-day ceasefire while the US and Iran negotiated terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and curtailing Iran’s nuclear program – “have once again proven to everyone the truth of how worthless and invalid the signature of the US president is”.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since US attacks killed his father and severely injured him in the first days of the war. Iranian officials say 50 people have been killed and more than 500 injured by US attacks since June 27.

Kuwait hit

The attacks on July 19 added to one of the worst sustained waves of Iranian strikes on Kuwait since the conflict began. This weekend alone, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said an unspecified oil site sustained “significant material losses”, causing its evacuation and a number of injuries, while two power and desalination plants have now been hit.

Kuwait Airways rescheduled most of its flights and the foreign ministry warned the repeated targeting of vital installations “reveals a systemic aggressive approach that targets civilian assets, endangering the lives and safety of civilians”, in flagrant violation of international law.

Iran also targeted US radar and aircraft in Qatar, one of the main mediators between Washington and Tehran, according to the Tasnim news agency.

The worsening hostilities have not reached the level seen at the war’s height in March and early April. Then, the US and Israel bombarded Iranian cities on a mass scale and Tehran fired thousands of drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states and Israel.

The US State Department urged Americans to reconsider travel through or to the Middle East given the potential for “unforeseen escalation”. BLOOMBERG