For US Vice-President Vance, Iran talks could shape political rise

– US Vice-President J.D. Vance is poised to take on his biggest role yet on the international stage as President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator to end the three-month war with Iran, a moment that could shape Vance’s prospects as a White House successor.

The two nations agreed to a provisional peace agreement on June 17 that suspended hostilities but left core issues unresolved, deferring decisions on Iran’s nuclear programme, its support for regional militant proxies and the economically vital Strait of Hormuz to 60 days of talks.

The discussions are a high-risk scenario for all sides in the conflict, the broader Middle East, and for Vance’s political ambitions. And the situation remains fluid: Vance cancelled a planned June 18 night flight to Switzerland for the start of talks, though the White House said the US delegation is “prepared to depart at the first available opportunity”.

The fast-moving developments coincide with the publication of Vance’s book on his conversion to Catholicism, Communion, and a media tour to promote it, during which he discussed his faith while positioning himself as the Iran deal’s top booster.

The campaign-style push reached a crescendo on June 18 with a White House news conference where Vance laid out US hopes for a final peace deal and offered what some observers called one of the strongest rebukes of Israel in US history, while also swatting away a question about a potential presidential run.

“If the Iranians don’t change their behaviour, their military and their nuclear programme are still destroyed,” Vance said. “If they do change their behaviour, then they are going to have a transformative relationship with the Middle East, and the Middle East will have a transformative relationship with the people of Iran.”

Fellow Republicans have underscored the significance of Vance’s high-profile role in the Iran deal.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a leader in the party’s foreign policy establishment, called Vance the “architect” of the peace agreement, and said the Vice-President should present a final deal to the Senate for approval.

Trump joked on June 17 that Vance had little to gain and much to lose from this assignment.

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming J.D.!” the President chortled during a news conference at the Group of Seven summit in Evian-les-Bains, France.

Representatives from Vance’s office declined to comment for this report.

Trump ran for office promising lower prices and an end to what he called “forever wars” in the Middle East. Instead, inflation has accelerated, and he launched strikes on Iran on Feb 28. Some Republican allies have accused Trump of granting Tehran major concessions to alleviate the price pressures caused by the conflict.

While Trump has touted the provisional peace deal as a total military and diplomatic victory, it appears at this point to have advanced few of his goals from the outset of the war: Iran’s theocratic government remains in place, it retains ballistic missiles and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and it continues supporting anti-Israel militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Vance has had to defend the President’s decisions while trying to establish some distance from Trump’s falling approval ratings. He has attempted to do so by pointing to marginal economic improvements while declaring “there’s a lot more work to do”.

“Have a little bit of faith in the President of the United States. The idea that he is going to strike a deal that’s bad for the American people – it’s preposterous,” Vance said on June 18.

He told conservative media host Megyn Kelly earlier in the week that he remained engaged on the Iran war because distancing himself from the effort would be “a very immature way to approach the political process”, while accusing hawkish conservatives of seeking to continue US attacks “until every bomb has been dropped, or until every Iranian is dead”.

Vance has cautioned against intensifying the war and advocated Trump to pursue a diplomatic exit. He is one of the leaders of an ascendant wing of the Republican Party that hopes to restrain US global military pursuits.

He is not without critics.

“In my opinion, the Vice-President – the chief negotiator on this project – has not well served the President,” right-wing media figure Ben Shapiro said on June 18 on Fox News.

Trump appears to have elevated Vance as the face of the agreement rather than Secretary of State Marco Rubio – traditionally the country’s chief diplomat – triggering questions from administration allies about Rubio’s role in negotiations.

A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, said no one on Trump’s team voiced opposition to the provisional peace deal.

Rubio is also seen as a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, though neither he nor Vance have said they plan to seek the presidency.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The move to promote Vance, though, is typical of the way Trump has managed Cabinet officials in his second term, said one person close to the White House, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“This back and forth is throwing people off, but Trump knows what he’s doing,” the person said. “He is literally conducting a tryout in real time.”

Throughout it all has been Vance’s book, which he has jokingly promoted in nearly every media engagement alongside discussion of the day’s news.

Facing a grilling about Iran, immigration and civil rights on ABC’s The View on June 16, the Vice-President quipped: “Let’s talk about the book – I’m here to sell books.” REUTERS