Europe’s fifth heatwave risks straining rivers, power and crops

PARIS – Another wave of intense heat is set to sweep across an already parched Europe this week, raising wildfire risks, threatening crops and drying watersheds feeding the region’s critically low rivers.

A high-pressure heat dome is forecast to drive up temperatures in northern France to near 40 deg C on Aug 11, according to Meteo-France. Temperatures in southern England could reach the mid-30s, with 38 deg C possible in Frankfurt on Aug 14, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows.

Europe’s fifth major heatwave of the year is likely to block moisture-bearing clouds from helping refill rivers such as the Rhine, Po and Danube, where record low water levels have disrupted navigation and power production.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heat in the world’s fastest-warming continent, straining power grids, sapping water supplies and curbing farm output.

Some sporadic thunderstorms are likely this week, especially in the Alps and south of that region, but total rainfall is “unlikely to make a large difference on downstream flows” of key rivers, according to analysis from MetDesk’s Daniel Gardner-Declaudure.

Water levels at Kaub on the Rhine river, a key chokepoint for river shipments to southern Germany and Switzerland, continue to dwindle.

Levels dropped to 24cm a week earlier, the lowest since records began in 1880, and reached 16cm on Aug 10. Forecasts from the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration show the level could fall to just 4cm by Aug 14 as persistent hot weather and a lack of rainfall grip the region.

Intraday power prices in France and Germany are above €170 (S$251) per megawatt-hour for the evening peak from 8pm to 10pm when solar levels fall and cooling demand ramps up, according to data from Epex Spot. That compares to prices below €20 per megawatt-hour around 1pm in both countries.

Red heat warnings have been issued for Italy and Croatia, with amber-level warnings in place across south-east France, northern Switzerland, western Poland and much of south-eastern Europe. There are amber heat health alerts for most of England.

The forecast for more hot, dry weather could also worsen wildfire conditions in many countries. Modelling from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre shows high fire danger this week in Britain, Spain, France, Germany and Italy.

In Greece, about 200 firefighters are tackling a wildfire that led to evacuations near Agios Stylianos in the Attica region. BLOOMBERG