EU’s trade probe of Peking duck foreshadows another China shock

HONG KONG - Farm products are once again in the crossfire of trade tensions between China and the European Union. This time, the target is not French wine or Dutch cheese – it is Peking duck.

The EU’s anti-dumping investigation into the breed behind one of China’s most celebrated dishes has delivered a fresh irritant to an already strained relationship. While the symbolism of the probe probably counts more than the actual value of what remains a niche trade, the case points to a bigger story.

“Made in China” is expanding well beyond inexpensive clothes, plastic toys or state-of-the-art solar panels. Increasingly, it is also about the poultry, fish, and even caviar and foie gras, that are making their way onto dinner tables around the world.

China spent decades building an agricultural system to ensure it could feed over 1 billion people. But as domestic demand slows and the population shrinks, a surplus of food is driving producers to tap overseas markets.

Take duck. Government-backed breeding programs and vertically integrated supply chains have driven down costs and lifted productivity, paving the way for exports. China’s overseas sales of frozen duck meat and offal in the first five months of 2026 are closing in on the total volume recorded for the whole of 2025.

The export boom, measured in tens of thousands of tons, hardly compares with China’s vast domestic market, where output has reached about 6 million tons, according to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization. But tiny amounts in Chinese terms can still be difficult to digest for much smaller countries.

Demand growth, meanwhile, has slowed at home. The economy has not really recovered since the end of the pandemic and consumers are less keen on dining out. An aging population also eats less meat. The price of duck has suffered, causing widespread losses in the industry in 2025, according to the China Waterfowl Industry Association.

It is not just duck. China has long been the world’s biggest exporter of seafood. Its overseas sales of chicken are at a record. There is a chance that your next meal, whether it is a roasted bird or a plate of oysters, may have originated on a Chinese farm.

China is also, by some measures, the world’s largest importer of food, particularly grains, oilseeds and meat. But there is a shift taking place that highlights the country’s capacity to warp international trade in ways that threaten its competitors.

Beijing is applying the same state-backed industrial playbook to agriculture that turned China into a global powerhouse for solar panels and electric vehicles, according to a report from research group Systemiq earlier in 2026.

Call it a new China shock, but the country could become a net exporter of poultry, dairy, eggs and farmed aquatic products by around 2040. It is a reversal “that will introduce Chinese food exports as a competitive force in global markets,” Systemiq said.

The EU’s investigation into Peking duck is likely to take a year, although provisional anti-dumping measures could be imposed before then. BLOOMBERG