As Iran war drags on, Americans are bracing themselves for more chaos in Middle East: Poll

People walking past an anti-US billboard on a street in Tehran, Iran, on Aug 3. PHOTO: REUTERS

– Five months into the US war with Iran, Americans who expect the Middle East to slide towards chaos outnumber those who see the war bringing more stability by three to one, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The six-day poll concluded on Aug 3, as Republican President Donald Trump again backed away from threatened “massive attacks” on Iran, underscoring uncertainty surrounding a conflict he initially predicted would bring a swift victory.

Fifty per cent of poll respondents said they thought US military action in Iran would destabilise the Middle East over the next year, about three times the 17 per cent who said the war would lead to more stability in the region. Another 16 per cent said stability would stay about the same and 17 per cent said they were unsure or did not answer the question.

Americans were also pessimistic about petrol prices, which have risen as Iran has choked off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies. Some 58 per cent said they expected petrol prices to worsen, while just 15 per cent expected them to improve.

Respondents held similarly grim views about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a majority fearing it will get worse over the next few years, and also raising concerns about new conflicts arising elsewhere on the world stage.

Political risk

The findings underscore the political risks for Trump and his fellow Republicans as they seek to defend narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections.

Trump returned to office in January 2025 vowing to avoid “stupid wars”, a message that resonated with voters weary of the two decades of war that followed the Sept 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda attacks.

Republicans, in contrast with their general support for Trump, were sharply divided on how they see his war with Iran playing out. While 80 per cent of Republicans approve of Trump’s performance as president and 66 per cent back his handling of Iran, fewer than half – 41 per cent – think stability in the Middle East will get better over the next year as a result of the war.

The war has led to Iranian missile and drone attacks against neighbouring countries and commercial shipping, and sparked new fighting in Lebanon, which has reduced in intensity since a US-brokered truce. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have also threatened Saudi shipping transiting the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea.

David Schenker, who served as the State Department’s top Middle East official during Trump’s first term, said the economic effects could persist even if the fighting ended quickly. But he said it was not certain the war would result in a more unstable Middle East, arguing that US and Israeli attacks had significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities and the regional proxy network.

“I don’t think there’s an understanding of the nature of the degradation of Iran’s capabilities, which is significant,” said Schenker, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The war, which Trump launched with Israel in late February, has cost US taxpayers at least US$37.5 billion (S$48 billion), killed 18 US service members and killed thousands of Iranians.

An unpopular war

Just 35 per cent of Americans approve of the war. Asked which political party has a better approach to handling war and terrorism, registered voters picked Democrats over Republicans – 37 per cent to 36 per cent – the first time Democrats led since Reuters/Ipsos polling began posing the question in December 2024, when Republicans led 39 per cent to 28 per cent. The poll also showed voters now see Democrats as better able to manage the economy for the first time in about a decade.

“This war was unpopular the day it started, and it’s gotten more unpopular since,” said Justin Logan, director of defence and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, a Washington think-tank.

Logan said Trump faced a difficult trade-off: He has set ambitious goals for the conflict – destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and preventing it from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon – while seeking to limit US casualties and the political costs that could come with them.

“That incoherence, or rudderlessness, in the conduct of the war is causing more problems for the President,” Logan said.

Worries about Ukraine, China

The poll found that Americans also have significant concerns that wars under way will get worse and that new wars will break out. Some 58 per cent said they were concerned the Russia-Ukraine war, in which Washington and European allies have supported Kyiv with weapons and intelligence, could get worse.

Another 55 per cent said they worried about China engaging in conflict with Taiwan, while 48 per cent were concerned a war could break out between Russia and a European country other than Ukraine. Some 37 per cent worried the US would go to war over Greenland.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, gathering responses from 4,505 US adults nationwide. It had a margin of error of 2 percentage points. REUTERS