AfD on pre-election roll in east Germany, despite economists' scepticism

QUEDLINBURG, Germany, Aug 10 - Lars Gottschligg bought an abandoned building in the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt, covered it with solar panels and transformed it into a sleek black cube that harvests and stores energy, houses data centres and charges electric cars.

"We turned a lost place into a place for the future," the boss of SSC Hydrovent explained during a tour of his plant in the town of Quedlinburg.

Yet with regional elections looming, Gottschligg is unconcerned by the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which wants, among other things, a greater role for conventional energy sources and less support for renewables.

The AfD is polling at around 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, which votes on September 6, and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, voting on September 20.

While in western Germany much AfD support stems from opposition to immigration, experts say that in eastern Germany, the issue matters less.

More significant is the states' shared east German legacy of shrinking populations, shortages of skilled labour, and higher unemployment and lower incomes than in western Germany.

EAST GERMANY STILL FEELS LEFT BEHIND, LONG AFTER UNIFICATION

Studies suggest the AfD's rise is fuelled by a lingering sense of economic disadvantage, 36 years after east and west Germany united, and of neglect by a political establishment still largely rooted in the west.

"The people I talk to — and I feel this way myself too — we're not afraid of it," Gottschligg said. "(The AfD) are going to bring about a great deal of change – in fact, they're already doing so."

Both states are among the hardest hit by the shrinking of east Germany's workforce, particularly the young.

The population of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with its ports and sandy beaches on the Baltic, has fallen by nearly a fifth since reunification. Saxony-Anhalt has the highest share of pension-age people in Germany: 52 for every 100 of working age.

“Labour is the scarcest production factor in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's future," said Oliver Holtemoeller from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

Unsurprisingly, GDP per capita there is only around 76% of the national average, and labour productivity around 86%, he said.

A study by the economic research institute DIW Berlin shows that, where younger, well-educated people are leaving and over-60s are more numerous, the AfD scores significantly higher.

YOUNG EAST GERMANS SEEKING SOLUTIONS

Pablo Himmelspach, 29, comes from near Demmin, a small town in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with "a lot of older people, and a lot of people who left", but decided to stay.

Studying at Rostock University, and singing as half of the rap duo Hinterlandgang or "Back-country Gang", he says optimism is in fact growing among the young who remain, who for a long time lacked places and opportunities to express themselves:

"I get the feeling that in my generation it's no longer such a big thing that everyone wants to move away."

Hinterlandgang's latest song, "Mitlaeufer" ("Followers"), reflects their mood and that of younger residents who worry about the rise of extremism: "The AfD is 'mainstream', but we’re not just following the crowd."

Peter Holdt has taken matters into his own hands. After seeing through his teenage daughter how little there was for teenagers to do in the city of Wismar, he created a travelling "Disco Bus".

Fitted with oversized speakers and disco lights, it brings DJs to villages and schoolyards: "I get in the bus, drive somewhere and make kids happy."

Wismar's mayor, Frank Junge, said the bus fills a gap that the municipal budget, more straitened than in the west, cannot cover.

Guido Friebel, project leader at the Rockwool Foundation Berlin and professor at Goethe University in Frankfurt, said that "many people in eastern Germany still feel their concerns are not being heard by politicians".

However, economists say the AfD's policies would be particularly negative for the economically less developed east.

"Although much of the dissatisfaction among people in strong AfD regions is understandable, they would harm themselves the most by voting for the AfD," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of DIW Berlin.

EAST GERMANY'S PROBLEMS MAY NOT BE SOLVED BY AFD REMEDIES

A study by his institute says this is because, in areas that disproportionately back the AfD, businesses are generally smaller than in the west, workers have lower qualifications, and economic options are more limited.

Under AfD policies — including withdrawal from the euro and the European Union, a halt to immigration, and cuts in state spending — Saxony-Anhalt would lose an average €1,600 ($1,840) a head in annual income and 10,000 jobs, DIW estimated.

Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, AfD deputy chair in Saxony-Anhalt, disagreed, saying: "If the AfD were able to implement its measures, such as ending all CO2 levies and lifting sanctions against Russia, the result would be a dramatic reduction in the cost of all forms of energy, a sharp rise in foreign trade and, consequently, a massive economic boom."

The marine engineering programme at the University of Rostock — a port and former shipbuilding centre that is often associated with deprivation and far-right agitation — suggests a different route to success.

It had only 10 students per year until the course was internationalised and redesigned with input from local companies, said programme director Sascha Kosleck.

Annual enrolment rose to about 200 within two semesters, drawing students from India, Pakistan, Egypt and beyond.

"We naturally hope that many of them will also stay here in the region and enrich the (labour) market," Kosleck said.

The prospect of an AfD victory worries him - particularly its proposals to charge non-EU students tuition fees.

Gottschligg, with his renewable-energy projects, might also be hamstrung by AfD policies, in his case on high-carbon fossil fuels. But he says he has nothing to fear.

"People want a healthy environment, and they want affordable energy," Gottschligg said. "If renewable energy makes economic sense, then I don't think even an AfD government would stand in its way." REUTERS